Wintery Knight

…integrating Christian faith and knowledge in the public square

New Ernst and Young report: proposed tax increases will cost 710,000 jobs

Here’s the news from The Hill:

Allowing tax rates for the country’s highest earners to rise, an idea endorsed by top Democrats, would have a dire effect on the economic recovery, according to a new report prepared for business groups that was released Tuesday.

The study from Ernst & Young found that letting tax rates for the wealthiest Americans lapse would sap $200 billion and some 700,000 jobs out of the economy, reduce wages by 1.8 percent and lead to a decrease in investment.

“These results may suggest to policy makers that allowing the top tax rates to increase comes with economic consequences,” Ernst & Young’s Robert Caroll and Gerald Prante wrote in the report for the Independent Community Bankers of America, the National Federation of Independent Business, the S Corporation Association and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

“Long-run output can be expected to fall, and, depending on the use of the revenues, living standards, as reflected by workers‟ real after-tax wages, may also be lower.”

Top Republicans, including House GOP leaders and committee chairmen, jumped on the Tuesday report, as they continue to battle with President Obama and Democrats over how to proceed on tax issues and the broader fiscal cliff.

Obama reiterated last week his plan to only extend the Bush-era rates for annual family incomes up to $250,000 for another year, a proposal many congressional Democrats have coalesced behind. Republicans on the Hill want to extend all current rates for a year.

The key findings are here on the House Ways and Means Committee‘s web site:

Lower wages, fewer jobs and less investment

  • Output in the long-run would fall by 1.3 percent, or $200 billion in today’s economy.
  • Employment in the long-run would fall by 0.5 percent, meaning roughly 710,000 fewer jobs in today’s economy.
  • Capital stock and investment in the long-run would fall by 1.4 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.
  • Real after-tax wages would fall by 1.8 percent, reflecting a decline in workers’ living standards relative to what would have occurred otherwise.

Every state in the U.S. feels the impact of tax hikes

  • The report, which offers a state-by-state look at the impact on economic output and employment, finds that every state is affected negatively by the tax increases contemplated by the Obama Administration.

Ernst & Young is one of the top financial firms in the world. The report is entitled “Long-run macroeconomic impact of increasing tax rates on high-income taxpayers in 2013″.

Even though Obama has increased our debt by nearly 6 trillion in less than four years, that money hasn’t created any jobs because government is not efficient at creating jobs that last. When you take money away from people who create jobs, you lose the jobs.  Wasting money on green energy firms that go bankrupt is a great plan to pay back your campaign fundraisers, but it’s not a good plan to create jobs. Bailing out labor unions with billions of taxpayer dollars so that they can create electric cars that catch fire is not the right way to create jobs, either. That’s what the stimulus was – $800 billion dollars taken out of the hands of businesses and sent directly to Obama’s allies. We need to get the government out of our business if we want job creation.

Filed under: News, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

6 Responses

  1. Mysterious C says:

    I expect it to be worse than this. You’ve probably seen the paper by Obama’s former economic advisor for hire, Christina Romer. When she’s not in the White House, she knows exactly what effect tax increases will have:

    —————–

    Christina Romer Knows Tax Hikes Will Kill the Recovery

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/04/23/christina-romer-knows-tax-hikes-will-kill-the-recovery/

    “The behavior of output following these more exogenous changes indicates that tax increases are highly contractionary. The effects are strongly significant, highly robust, and much larger than those obtained using broader measures of tax changes.”

    Wow! That’s about as strong a statement as you will ever read in a paper published in the AER.

    The Romers’ baseline estimate suggests that a tax increase of 1% of GDP (about $160 billion in today’s economy) reduces real GDP by 3% over the next 10 quarters.

    In addition, the Romers used a variety of statistical tests to take into account other factors that could influence economic growth at the time of the tax changes, including government spending, monetary policy, the relative price of oil, and even whether the President was a Democrat or Republican (it doesn’t matter much). A summary of the statistical work estimates that a tax increase of 1% of GDP would lead to a fall in output of 2.2% to 3.6% over the next 10 quarters.

    ——————

    The mistake would be to think that Obama doesn’t know this. Also, note that Obamacare is really a tax increase. If $160 billion reduces GDP by 3% over 2.5 years, what will a tax many times this amount do? It’s almost too painful to think about …

  2. RonFCCC says:

    I’m just wondering …

    If the stimulus was just “$800 billion dollars taken out of the hands of businesses and sent directly to Obama’s allies,” why did so many Republicans vote for it (it passed the House 244–188)? Since they did so apparently believing it was necessary in order to avoid slipping into depression, were they just wrong about that? Or could it be just faintly possible that the $800 billion actually did keep things from being much, much worse?

    Given that the president knows his reelection is closely tied to the performance of the economy, why would he want to allow taxes on the wealthiest to go up if it “would sap $200 billion and some 700,000 jobs out of the economy, reduce wages by 1.8 percent and lead to a decrease in investment.” Well, I guess you could always assume that he’s stupid. Or so committed to socialism that being defeated for a second term is a price he’s willing to pay to crash the economy.

    Just wondering.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Fabulous 50 Blog Award 2011
Fabulous 50 Blog Award 2012
Click to see recent visitors

  Visitors Online Now

Page views since 1/30/09

  • 3,156,765 hits

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 817 other followers

Archives

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 817 other followers

%d bloggers like this: