First, George Will: (Headline: George Will predicts 321-217 Romney landslide)
Add Washington Post George Will to the landslide column along with Fox News Channel’s Dick Morris and the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone.
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”
Second, Michael Barone:
[M]ost voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.
Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.
That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.
That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.
[...]Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.
[...]Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Barone’s article breaks it down by state, which is good reading. He gives Romney Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Both Barone and Will are moderates who are not known for making wild speculative predictions.
I do think that if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado that you should definitely get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan. The latest poll in Pennsylvania shows a tie (Obama won that by 11 points in 2008). The latest poll in Michigan shows Romney ahead by 1 point (Obama won that by 16 points in 2008).
At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney (similar to Barone’s but Obama wins Pennsylvania (20)).
The more of a landslide this is, the more of a mandate that Ryan will have for his economic plan. I want to get back to the place where I don’t have to worry about my job and my portfolio as soon as possible. Please get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan, and tell everyone you know to do the same. I am sick and tired of this feeling of doom that has been hanging over me and my aspirations for my life over the last four years.
UPDATE: Jimmy Pethokoukis says 301-237.