Wintery Knight

…integrating Christian faith and knowledge in the public square

James Pethokoukis projects 301-237 for Romney, Steve Ertelt projects 285-253 for Romney

If you haven’t voted yet, please go vote! There is still time, especially in central, mountain and western time zones. If you have voted already, here’s a nice article to reward you while we wait for the election results. And thank you for voting!

From Jimmy Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute.

Excerpt:

Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for President Obama.

There is some upside potential here for Romney, especially in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The bounce from superstorm Sandy is fading, though it may be enough to get Obama N.H in the Northeast where the president has surged, distorting the top-line numbers in some recent national polls.

Many pollsters are not catching the stratospheric GOP enthusiasm, particularlyamong voters of faith, in voting for Romney and Paul Ryan — not just against Obama and Joe Biden. In this way, the Bush-Kerry parallel from 2004 does not hold up. (Oh, and think twice before betting against Michael Barone when elections are on the line.) So there you go.

And Steve Ertelt of Life News.

Excerpt:

LifeNews is projecting that pro-life Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s presidential election and defeat President Barack Obama 285-253 in the Electoral College vote.

[...]The election map will look more like the close contests of 2000 and 2004, where I correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states, but turnout and enthusiasm appears to be on the side of Romney and the Republicans. Poll after poll shows GOP voters and independents, who favor Romney over Obama by wide margins, are much more enthused about voting than Obama’s base Democrats. The youth vote will not be as significant as it was in 2008 for Obama but the evangelical turnout will be stronger this time.

Ultimately, elections turn on the economy. The economy has been stagnant and voters will choose Mitt Romney to see if he can turn it around.

At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney. Steve agrees with me in every state except Wisconsin, which is the one state that I have doubts about. Michael Barone agrees with me in every state except Pennsylvania, which I give to Obama. Pethokoukis and Ertelt join Michael Barone and George Will in predicting a Romney victory.

So, there is no doubt that Romney will win, but get out there and vote anyway if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado.

Filed under: News, , , , , , ,

6 Responses

  1. Bernie says:

    I did my part in MN. It would be a surprising thing for a Republican presidential candidate to win a Democratic stronghold state like Minnesota. But there is a one man/one woman marriage amendment on the ballot so hopefully that will bring out the conservatives.

  2. Brendan says:

    WaPo is saying the electorate is slightly more GOP than in 2008, at least from preliminary exit polls: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/06/exit-polls-electorate-slightly-more-republican-than-2008/

    Obviously the caveats about preliminary exit polls apply (remember 2004?), but if that holds up, bad news for Obama.

  3. I voted for Romney here in Virginia. I sure hope my state will do the right thing and I suspect it will.

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