Wintery Knight

…integrating Christian faith and knowledge in the public square

More Republicans and fewer Democrats voted early in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga county

If you haven’t voted yet, please go vote! There is still time, especially in central, mountain and western time zones. If you have voted already, here’s a nice article to reward you while we wait for the election results. And thank you for voting!

The Washington Times reports.

Excerpt:

Early voting in Cuyahoga County ended as of 2pm on Monday and turnout numbers have already been sent to county parties throughout the state.  Although Cuyahoga County will go the president’s way, just by pure party registrations, early and absentee voting numbers coming from the Cuyahoga County Republican Party should cause Democrats state wide and nationally to be concerned in terms of GOP enthusiasm in Democratic strongholds.

“What we have seen, as of this morning, early voting [in Cuyahoga County] shows  an additional 17,000 Republicans over what we saw in 2008 and the number of Democrats voting provisionally is less than what it was in 2008, so the net is about a 30,000 vote swing,” said Doug Magill, Cuyahoga County Republican Party spokesman, on Monday evening.

Essentially, according to Mr. Magill, Republicans were outnumbered in Cuyahoga in early voting in 2008 4.1 to 1. In 2012 Republicans are only outnumbered 2.7 to 1 in early and absentee voting in the heavy Democratic County. “In Cuyahoga County that’s significant,” he said.

Here are some numbers Mr. Magill cited to think about:

In 2008 Obama received 72 percent of the absentee and early voting in Cuyahoga County for a total of 187,000 votes. McCain received 28 percent of the 2008 Cuyahoga County absentee and early voting. In 2012, absentee and early voting now is 128,000 Democrats versus 145,000 from 2008.

However, 47,000 Republicans turned out to vote early or absentee this year in Cuyahoga as opposed to the 2008 GOP turnout in the county, which was 34,000. “So that’s the swing–17,000 plus about 13,000. Actually, it’s about 30,000 and independents are down from 2008,” Magill said.

What the total means is that Democrats are at 55% of their absentee and early voting in Cuyahoga County than what they were in 2008.

Much of the world is going to be as surprised as the Democrats that Romney has won this election in a landslide, but this is what all of the preliminary numbers show. There is a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm for the Republicans this year. If you haven’t yet voted, go now and vote!

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One Response

  1. Brendan says:

    This is the key issue, really. Have the pollsters been making inaccurate assumptions about their turnout (i.e., how +D the electorate will be). The swing state polls I have seen have all been D+7-D+9 or even higher. That’s a more dem electorate in 2008. That is counterintuitive to me, given the huge wave of energy and enthusiasm the Dems had in 2008. If the electorate is even a bit less Dem than these polls have it (say, around D+2 to D+4), Romney probably wins.

    The irritating thing about all of this is that Nate Silver has become a kind of guru with people thinking “this is all cold hard truth and facts like science” etc. It isn’t. The polls he is aggregating are all making turnout *assumptions* — not based on actual polling. There are other polls just on party ID that suggest that the electorate will NOT be very heavily +D this time. Here is a story about one: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/mitt_key_to_victory_NXRQVJOH67X9eN3e9qoLDM

    Silver says he has taken this into account by his calculation of the possibility of Romney winning (which he puts at 8-10%), which he says represents the possibility that all of the polls have oversampled dem votes based on turnout assumptions that are very +dem. So even he admits that it’s possible that there has been a broad overstatement of the +Dem electorate here, he just thinks it’s a small risk because he thinks that the risk that everyone has done the same thing and made the same mistake is a low risk.

    I’m not su sure. We will see.

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