Wintery Knight

…integrating Christian faith and knowledge in the public square

James Pethokoukis projects 301-237 for Romney, Steve Ertelt projects 285-253 for Romney

If you haven’t voted yet, please go vote! There is still time, especially in central, mountain and western time zones. If you have voted already, here’s a nice article to reward you while we wait for the election results. And thank you for voting!

From Jimmy Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute.

Excerpt:

Based on both polls and reporting, my best guess is that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States, winning the two-party popular vote 51% to 49% and the electoral vote by 301 to 237 for President Obama.

There is some upside potential here for Romney, especially in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The bounce from superstorm Sandy is fading, though it may be enough to get Obama N.H in the Northeast where the president has surged, distorting the top-line numbers in some recent national polls.

Many pollsters are not catching the stratospheric GOP enthusiasm, particularlyamong voters of faith, in voting for Romney and Paul Ryan — not just against Obama and Joe Biden. In this way, the Bush-Kerry parallel from 2004 does not hold up. (Oh, and think twice before betting against Michael Barone when elections are on the line.) So there you go.

And Steve Ertelt of Life News.

Excerpt:

LifeNews is projecting that pro-life Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney will win tomorrow’s presidential election and defeat President Barack Obama 285-253 in the Electoral College vote.

[...]The election map will look more like the close contests of 2000 and 2004, where I correctly predicted the outcome in all 50 states, but turnout and enthusiasm appears to be on the side of Romney and the Republicans. Poll after poll shows GOP voters and independents, who favor Romney over Obama by wide margins, are much more enthused about voting than Obama’s base Democrats. The youth vote will not be as significant as it was in 2008 for Obama but the evangelical turnout will be stronger this time.

Ultimately, elections turn on the economy. The economy has been stagnant and voters will choose Mitt Romney to see if he can turn it around.

At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney. Steve agrees with me in every state except Wisconsin, which is the one state that I have doubts about. Michael Barone agrees with me in every state except Pennsylvania, which I give to Obama. Pethokoukis and Ertelt join Michael Barone and George Will in predicting a Romney victory.

So, there is no doubt that Romney will win, but get out there and vote anyway if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado.

Filed under: News, , , , , , ,

Pew Research poll oversamples Democrats by 6%, CNN poll oversamples Democrats by 11%

DaTechGuy explains:

The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

He goes through the poll sampling and finds 4 problems. Here are the first 3:

#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.

#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points.

#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.

Meanwhile, a CNN poll from today showing a tie oversamples Dems by 11%, and shows Romney winning independents 59% to 37%.

Excerpt:

CNN’s last national poll before Judgment Day shows the race tied at 49, with a D+11 partisan sample.  This assumes Democrats will improve upon their extraordinary 2008 turnout by four percentage points.  There’s a word for this.  It’s “ludicrous.”  CNN’s previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, so it suggests the GOP nominee is gaining steam.  In light of the mind-blowing sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?

(1) Independent voters are siding with Romney by 22 points, 59/37.

(2) Romney leads by nine on the economy — which is the top issue for voters, followed closely by the deficit, another Romney strong suit.

(3) Romney matches Obama on favorability and leadership qualities.

So there’s that.  In case you’re curious, the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, so any potential Sandy “bump” for Obama should be reflected in the numbers.

The most reputable poll in 2008 was Rasmussen Reports. Their latest national poll is showing Romney with a +1 lead.

Check my previous post about why I think this election will result in a strong Romney/Ryan victory.

Filed under: News, , , , , , ,

George Will and Michael Barone predict landslide victory for Romney/Ryan

First, George Will: (Headline: George Will predicts 321-217 Romney landslide)

Add Washington Post George Will to the landslide column along with Fox News Channel’s Dick Morris and the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone.

On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.

“I’m projecting Minnesota to go for Romney,” Will said. “It’s the only state that’s voted democratic in nine consecutive elections, but this year, there’s marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.”

Second, Michael Barone:

[M]ost voters oppose Obama’s major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery — Friday’s jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.

That might not matter if Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 39 to 32 percent, as they did in the 2008 exit poll. But just about every indicator suggests that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting — and about their candidate — than they were in 2008, and Democrats are less so.

That’s been apparent in early or absentee voting, in which Democrats trail their 2008 numbers in target states Virginia, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada.

[...]Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

[...]Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

Barone’s article breaks it down by state, which is good reading. He gives Romney Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Both Barone and Will are moderates who are not known for making wild speculative predictions.

I do think that if you are in a swing state like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada or Colorado that you should definitely get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan. The latest poll in Pennsylvania shows a tie (Obama won that by 11 points in 2008). The latest poll in Michigan shows Romney ahead by 1 point (Obama won that by 16 points in 2008).

At this point, I am reiterating my 52-47 popular vote prediction for Romney. My electoral college prediction is 295-243 for Romney (similar to Barone’s but Obama wins Pennsylvania (20)).

The more of a landslide this is, the more of a mandate that Ryan will have for his economic plan. I want to get back to the place where I don’t have to worry about my job and my portfolio as soon as possible. Please get out there and vote for Romney/Ryan, and tell everyone you know to do the same. I am sick and tired of this feeling of doom that has been hanging over me and my aspirations for my life over the last four years.

UPDATE: Jimmy Pethokoukis says 301-237.

Filed under: News, , , , , , ,

Gallup poll: Romney leads Obama 52-45 among early voters

Final 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Map

Final 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Map

From the latest Gallup poll:

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney’s 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

The Ohio Republicans have been busy purging dead voters and duplicate registrations:

[American Majority Action President Ned] Ryun, whose group has opened voter registration efforts in Ohio and other swing states, said that the Buckeye State’s efforts to clean up voter rolls has also played a part in tightening the gap. He said that 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations have been nixed, and the majority were Democrats.

“Considering Obama won the state by 263,000 votes, Ohio’s cleaner rolls could make a big impact,” Ryun said. He added, “The five largest counties in Ohio have all shifted at least 6 percent and as much as 27 percent to the Republicans since 2008. While the polls show an Obama lead, these real votes–assuming registered voters vote for their candidate–demonstrate a Republican shift since 2008.”

Ryun sent this to Secrets from his analysis of Ohio early voting:

In 2008, there were 1,158,301 total absentee ballots requested, 33 percent registered Democrat and 19 percent registered Republican–a 14 point gap. So far in 2012, 638,997 ballots have been requested, 29 percent Democrat and 24 percent Republican–only a five point gap.

Romney is confident enough about Ohio and Florida to be heading into deep blue states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

Excerpt:

Clinton’s Minnesota visit came just days after Romney and his allies started airing TV ads in the state. GOP-leaning groups including Americans for Job Security and American Future Fund were spending $615,000 this week. Romney spent a much lighter $29,000 last week, and it was unclear how much his campaign was spending this week. All together, the efforts led Obama to follow suit to prevent the state from slipping out of his grasp. His campaign was spending $210,000 on ads in Minnesota this week.

Polls show Romney having gained ground in Minnesota though still trailing Obama. And Obama has a much larger campaign footprint of paid staff and volunteers, including more than 30 full-time workers and 12 offices. Romney never has established much of campaign organization in Minnesota.

In Pennsylvania, Romney’s campaign started pouring money into TV ads Monday for the first time, though Republican-leaning groups have been on the air in recent days trying to narrow the Obama advantage indicated by surveys. Republican groups – American Crossroads, Restore Our Future and Americans for Job Security – are spending at least $3.9 million this week. That does not include spending by Romney’s campaign. Obama aides said the president’s campaign is spending $625,000.

Romney has sent most of his Pennsylvania team to other states in recent weeks, and he has had no plan to visit, raising questions about whether he is actually playing to win the state that offers 20 electoral votes and last went Republican in the 1988 presidential election.

GOP allies also were running TV ads in Democratic-tilting Michigan in hopes of softening the ground for Romney in the final days, but there was no indication yet that the Republican himself would make a strong 11th-hour play for the state where he was born and raised.

Romney is leading by 2 in Ohio, according to the latest Rasmussen poll, and trails Obama by single digits in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Obama has to win all 3 of those blue states to have a chance. Romney can win without Ohio.

Filed under: News, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Perry and Bachmann to reassess their campaigns after disappointing loss in Iowa

Here are the Iowa election results from Fox News as of 2 AM on Wednesday morning:

Candidate Votes Percent
Santorum 29,968 25%
Romney 29,964 25%
Paul 26,186 22%
Gingrich 16,241 14%
Perry 12,592 11%
Bachmann 6,070 5%
Huntsman 744 <1%

And now the good news for Rick Santorum: Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are both reassessing their campaigns.

Fox News:

Michele Bachmann said she’s soldiering on, giving no indication that she would bail on her Republican presidential campaign after a last-place showing in the contested Iowa caucuses, while Rick Perry, who finished just ahead of her in fifth, said he’s going back to Texas to “determine whether there is a path forward.”

“I believe I am the best conservative who can and who will beat Barack Obama in 2012,” Bachmann told supporters late Tuesday night following projections that she would be last in the six-way contest. Jon Huntsman decided not to compete in Iowa.

“In 2012, there could be another president in the White House. Who knows? There could be another Michele in the White House,” Bachmann said, referencing her shared name with first lady Michelle Obama.

Despite her pledges to go on, Bachmann campaign manager Keith Nahigian told The Associated Press that he couldn’t say with certainty whether Bachmann would go forward with her candidacy.

“I don’t know yet,” he said. “It’s hard to tell, but everything is planned.”

Asked about the report, Bachmann Communications Director Alice Stewart told Fox News that the AP story said it’s “uncertain.” “That’s true,” she said.

Bachmann’s 6 percent showing was a sharp turn after finishing in first place during the Ames, Iowa, GOP straw poll over the summer.

Perry, who doubled Bachmann’s raw vote total but earned only 11 percent overall, said he’s reassessing what he will do. He’s making that decision in light of the first-in-the-nation vote, but not before the Texas governor announced his campaign was making an ad buy in South Carolina, the third state to vote.

Perry has described the GOP presidential race as a marathon, but after spending the most of any campaign on Iowa advertising, his poor showing in Iowa won’t lend any momentum as the candidates go to New Hampshire, the first primary state of the election season, where Perry places last in polling.

The latest results are actually worse for Bachmann – 5%, not 6%. I think she should get out now and endorse Rick Santorum.

What’s interesting is that Mitt Romney had to spend a heck of a lot more money than Rick Santorum did in order to get the same 25% of the vote. What does that tell you about Mitt Romney as a candidate?

UPDATE: Bachmann is out, Perry is still in.

Filed under: News, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Wintery Tweets

Error: Twitter did not respond. Please wait a few minutes and refresh this page.

RSS Intelligent Design podcast

  • An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.

RSS Evolution News

  • An error has occurred; the feed is probably down. Try again later.
Click to see recent visitors

  Visitors Online Now

Page views since 1/30/09

  • 4,511,894 hits

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 2,155 other followers

Archives

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 2,155 other followers

%d bloggers like this: