The folks at PEW have released their last poll of the year and their headline seems to be good news for President Obama and bad news for me who has predicted his defeat:
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
He goes through the poll sampling and finds 4 problems. Here are the first 3:
#1 We are going to have a D+6 electorate even though all signs indicate the Democrats are not all that thrilled with president Obama but in 2010 the republicans managed historic wins in the states, and the house and big senate wins too.
#2 Even though independents favor Mitt Romney by 3 points in this poll and Republicans are voting 91-7 for Mitt according to their own number the electorate in 2012 is SO democratic that Obama is still up by 3 points.
#3 The female electorate on election day is going to outnumber the male electorate by a full 13 points thus negating any advantage that Mitt Romney might have with men.
Meanwhile, a CNN poll from today showing a tie oversamples Dems by 11%, and shows Romney winning independents 59% to 37%.
CNN’s last national poll before Judgment Day shows the race tied at 49, with a D+11 partisan sample. This assumes Democrats will improve upon their extraordinary 2008 turnout by four percentage points. There’s a word for this. It’s “ludicrous.” CNN’s previous national poll gave Obama a three-point lead, so it suggests the GOP nominee is gaining steam. In light of the mind-blowing sample, how is the race even close, let alone tied?
(1) Independent voters are siding with Romney by 22 points, 59/37.
(2) Romney leads by nine on the economy — which is the top issue for voters, followed closely by the deficit, another Romney strong suit.
(3) Romney matches Obama on favorability and leadership qualities.
So there’s that. In case you’re curious, the poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, so any potential Sandy “bump” for Obama should be reflected in the numbers.
Check my previous post about why I think this election will result in a strong Romney/Ryan victory.